Much has been written about the changes in wine consumption over the past few years, particularly regarding the impact this has on the Australian and New Zealand wine industries. Don’t worry, this is not going to be another one of my usual economic analysis pieces with reams of export, sales and production statistics. We’re just going to have a ‘chat’.

In a global sense, drinkers appear to be shifting away from big, oaky, warm-climate red wines towards lighter, lower-alcohol and less woody red wines—the reverse of the trends created by ‘internationalisation’ (or Parkerisation, in some circles) around the late 1990s until the early 2010s.

Just as chardonnay had moved away from buttery, oaky and ripe ‘cake-like’ styles in the late 2000s, the abundance of ripe, alcoholic vintages from 2009 onwards has coincided with the rise of several movements towards more transparent, lighter and more refreshing red wines; including the natural wine and new wave movements. At the top of the mountain sits pinot noir, the ultimate lighter red, epitomised by the dominance of red Burgundy in all fine wine markets, toppling Bordeaux from its long, comfortable reign.

This preference for lighter reds over the past 15 years has also paved the way for the rapid ascendance of gamay, particularly Beaujolais; the crisp and refreshing cabernet francs of Anjou and Saumur; a resurgence in less ‘international’ styles of sangiovese; rediscovery of many fragrant Italian red varieties as well as the Peloponnese’s agiorgitiko; the rise of Etna reds and Galician mencia and increasing international interest in fresher iterations of blaufränkisch, zweigelt and even Hungary’s kadarka.

The Australian alternative varieties movement, with its associated wine show (AAVWS) seems prophetic in its wisdom as it is developing in step with the move away from big ripe shiraz wines. Pinot noir-focused regions like those in southern Victoria, Tasmania, Adelaide Hills and cooler parts of New South Wales have also stepped in to the gap left as the tides of fortune recede from the warmth of the Barossa and the irrigated engine room of the Big Rivers. The excitement over new wave styles of grenache, such as those from McLaren Vale, are emblematic of the move towards more elegant, less brutalist styles.

In New Zealand, pinot noir is by far the largest red variety planted, though it pales in comparison to the sea of sauvignon blanc. According to retail figures, sauvignon blanc still has the largest share of the market, even domestically. However, if we shift to on-premise sales, the numbers are entirely different.

Restaurants, especially premium venues, do not see sauvignon blanc in a prime position any more. Pinot noir, chardonnay and sparkling wine dominate sales. If we change the metric to total value, it is even more stark as drinkers are willing to pay much more for these styles of wine than they are for sauvignon blanc.

The other interesting shift lies in what is happening outside the top three: syrah, especially cooler-climate styles, rather than shiraz, has grown over the past decade and (depending on the venue) is either catching up to—or has leapfrogged—the Bordeaux varieties (the cabernets and merlot). Part of this is because syrah fills in the gaps between pinot noir and the bigger reds, but it is also approachable younger than classic Bordeaux-style blends.

Aotearoa’s climate does not lend itself to ripening grenache reliably (neither is there much planted), but increasing demand for Loire-inspired cabernet franc, gamay and sangiovese has resulted in expanding interest in these varieties among younger producers.

Lastly, it bears remembering that just looking at an ‘overall trend’ does much disservice to a granular understanding of the complex wine buying market. If you were to dig deeper into the numbers (which I have promised not to do today), it is clear that older drinkers are continuing to buy and almost single-handedly support the producers of bigger reds. Those who are still adding to their collections are also spending more on these wines than they were previously.

However, that interest is not translating to the younger demographic of drinkers, which is what the industry is looking at in the long term for sustainability. In general, the younger generations are drinking less or not drinking at all, and when they do, their motivations can often be different, including fewer social drinking occasions, more approachable wines, and lighter more refreshing styles, as mentioned above.

All of this does little to lessen the pain left by producers who are located in climates which were chosen for their ability to make big, ripe and oaky reds, but the shift towards a new equilibrium started many years ago and it looks unlikely to revert in the near future.